CEDAR KNOLLS, N.J. — Third-generation (3G) wireless networks are just getting off the ground in some countries, but the mass deployment of the wireless technology will not occur globally until 2007, according to market analysts Probe Group LLC.
Probe Group forecasts that 2.5G networks will push out the need for 3G. In fact, 2.5G networks are giving carriers an opportunity to judge just how much subscribers are willing to spend on nonvoice and non-SMS services, Probe said.
Hence, the point at which 3G networks will have sufficient customers to make its presence felt by global markets won't come until some time in 2007. That date is significantly more pessimistic than previous Probe forecasts.
"On the 3G 'battlefield,' carriers might regard 2.5G the way any commander regards the weather: having the potential to become a powerful ally or a remorseless enemy," said research director David Chamberlain.
However, delays in commercial deployments of 3G networks and handsets do not suggest the failure of this technology, according to the analysis. "We should be practicing the same patience being demonstrated by the carriers and a growing number of regulators," Chamberlain added.
Outside of North and South America, Probe said 3G will ultimately become the dominant mobile network in the future.
