WASHINGTON — The future of Bluetooth wireless technology is becoming decidedly mixed as proponents and analysts continue to question not only how soon the short-range technology will take off, but also whether the technology is fundamentally sound.
Several new studies by market researchers paint a less-than-rosy picture of Bluetooth's future, and recent research in the United Kingdom indicates that Bluetooth antennas placed next to plastic enclosures may degrade their RF signals.
A market survey released this week by Micrologic Research (Phoenix) found that Bluetooth is among the wireless communication technologies that would be adversely affected by a lackluster global economic recovery. The researchers concluded that Bluetooth chip set shipments would total 35.3 million units this year, down from the 45.4 million units the researchers had previously predicted.
"The continued lack of an economic recovery in most of the world has had a negative effect on all communications markets, and we believe that the Bluetooth market is not immune," the Micrologic study concluded.
At the recent Bluetooth Congress held in Amsterdam, Netherlands, the Bluetooth community also heard a mixed message about the prospects for the wireless technology that contained encouragement as well as warnings. Those prospects appear to hinge upon how fast, and in how big a volume, Bluetooth technology can penetrate the mobile phone and automotive markets as well as consumer applications such as music headsets.
Companies at the congress said they wanted to make Bluetooth a ubiquitous wireless technology for the global market. However, Mike McCamon, executive director of Bluetooth SIG Inc. (Overland Park, Kan.), warned, "We are not even halfway there yet."
Spec is stable
Still, McCamon said, "the [Bluetooth] spec is now stable, the component business is well understood and the software stack is stabilized." McCamon cautioned that there are still several remaining challenges, including product interoperability, consumer awareness and availability, and positioning of Bluetooth technology in a diversifying wireless market.
In order to improve interoperability, McCamon said shared efforts among the Bluetooth industry stakeholders are required. "Consumers expect products to work," he said. To build consumer demand for Bluetooth, he added, "it's no secret that we cannot fail in the mobile phone industry."
Meanwhile, the automotive industry provided a much-needed lift by selecting Bluetooth as the only wireless candidate for the telematics applications many auto manufacturers hope to build. "In-vehicle hands-free communications systems will be the dominant application that determines the long-term success or failure of Bluetooth," Jack Withrow, director of vehicle entertainment and communications at DaimlerChrysler Corp., told the congress in a keynote speech.
"If this doesn't work, I think Bluetooth is going to have a much longer road and much harder challenges," Withrow added.
Bluetooth on wheels
Market research firm In-Stat/MDR (Scottsdale, Ariz.) pointed to the automotive market as one of the most promising for Bluetooth technology, noting that products would begin appearing in the 2003 model year.
In-Stat forecasts that Bluetooth chip set shipments could hit 690 million units by 2006, despite suffering from downgraded mobile phone sales projections. Mobile phone applications are expected to generate most of the volume, although In-Stat said music headsets and personal digital assistants would also boost chip set volumes.
