SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Thankfully, the first half of 2009 is over, as the IC market was terrible.
What about the second half of 2009? There is considerable debate about the second half. Some are bulls. Some are bears. Some are in both camps.
Here's 10 reasons to be hopeful--or pessimistic--about the IC outlook, based on various and random data points from analysts and others:
Optimists:
Daniel Amir, analyst, Lazard Capital Markets
''In recent days we have learned that TSMC is running a 100 percent utilization rate at 65-nm and cannot meet demand. Two of TSMC's major customers at 65-nm -- Nvidia and Broadcom -- have raised orders for 3Q. We see this as a sign that chip suppliers are attempting to secure supply for potential upside in the 2H.''
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John Barton, analyst, Cowen and Co.
''Recent channel checks show significantly improved backlog coverage for the September quarter and consistent shipment patterns over the last three to four weeks. Our channel checks imply that September quarter backlogs will be up an average of 10 percent compared to the backlogs entering the June quarter.''
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Craig Berger, analyst, FBR
''Samsung Electronics positively pre-announces 2Q results. The company didn't provide a reason for the better than previously expected performance, though it is largely thought to be due to stabilizing prices for DRAM and NAND flash memory chips, better liquid crystal display volumes and pricing, and likely some better than expected shipments of cellular handsets.''
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Susie Inouye, analyst, Databeans Inc.
''The current market for optoelectronics worldwide is valued at $16.7 billion. This is a decrease of 6 percent for worldwide revenue from 2008. Unit shipments are expected to increase this year as demand for LEDs and OLEDs drives a shift in share from higher priced image sensors to these energy efficient lamps that are now backlighting televisions, mobile phones, and other displays.''
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Philip Koh, analyst, Gartner
''Asia/Pacific's semiconductor market is forecast to reach $114.2 billion in 2009, a 20.8 percent decline from 2008 revenue. The impact of the global downturn will result in the region's semiconductor industry experiencing high double-digit revenue declines in 2009. However, our 2Q09 forecast shows a slight improvement over the 1Q09 forecast due to an improved global PC and microprocessor outlook.''
